There will be general elections next March, and the dozen-plus-a-few Dutch parties are preparing for them. It’s time for another series of party profiles. We’ll go in order from small to large according to the August 2020 polls.

Todsy we continue with GL, the green-left party that is maybe the Dutch party to change most in the past five years.

Fair warning: I plan to vote for GL in 2021. That may affect my judgement.

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Well, that was interesting. The second major TV debate between eight party leaders actually allows us to draw a few conclusions. It could possibly even be a game-changer, though this year changing the game doesn’t mean winning 10 seats, but rather 3 or 4.

Remember: Wilders refused to attend, which led to Thieme (PvdD) being invited. I am starting to think Wilders has made a mistake here. See below under Buma.

Briefly, I expect 50Plus, GL, and the CDA to win some seats due to this debate, D66 and possibly the SP to remain stable, and the rest, including the PVV, to lose. Let’s see how badly this prediction does when the first post-debate polls come out. (I hope De Hond releases his tonight; for the others we’ll likely have to wait until Wednesday.)

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Yesterday featured the first major TV debate between five party leaders. Rutte and Wilders had withdrawn, so only Buma (CDA), Pechtold (D66), Klaver (GL), Asscher (PvdA), and Roemer (SP) participated.

The two main questions were whether one of the left-wing leaders would take a decisive lead over the others, and thus become Rutte’s main opponent in the elections; and whether Rutte and Wilders were right or wrong in abstaining from the debate.

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There appears to be a poll aimed specifically at non-white Dutch, and the results are interesting, though I’m hampered by the lack of direct access to the actual poll report.

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The Dutch elections are on 15th of March, and in the current international political climate they could take on an importance that goes well beyond our national parliament. Pundits and commentators might (ab)use the results to make predictions on the upcoming French and German elections (which will take place in April/May and September, respectively). So let’s take a look at the current situation. Last week we looked at the right; today we’ll look at the left.

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Contrary to all expectations the VVD+PvdA Rutte II government is likely to reach the end of its natural life. Elections are slated for 15 March 2017, and it seems likely government will not fall before that date. This would be the first time since 1998 that government survives unscathed until the next regular elections.

Now that all politicians have returned from recess they are starting up their electioneering; not yet with a fully-fledged campaign (that will happen only in February or so), but with positioning their party to go into the elections as a favourite. Most political moves of the next seven months will be aimed squarely at 15 March.

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