Posts in the VVD category.
Part of Parties.
4 December 2020
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Baudet, CU, DENK, FvD, Krol, Minor parties, PvdT, Rutte, SP, VVD
Dutch politics remain in flux, especially in the margins.
There will be general elections next March, and the dozen-plus-a-few Dutch parties are preparing for them. It’s time for another series of party profiles. We’ll go in order from small to large according to the August 2020 polls.
Today we close this series with conservative-liberal current ruling party VVD.
A surprise at the start of this week: informer Edith Schippers (VVD) resigned and parliament appointed former vice-chairman of the Council of State, former informer, and former advisor of Queen Beatrix, Herman Tjeenk Willink (PvdA) as her successor. In case his titles aren’t clear enough: he’s considered a wise statesman who’s above the current political fray.
The formation of the new government has reached a very vague stage where nobody is certain what is going to happen.
There’s not a great deal of news about the formation. Scout Schippers, who will likely be bumped up to informer soon, will talk with VVD, CDA, D66, and GL tomorrow. She also asked parliament for more time, which she’ll likely get.
Today the government formation officially started. “Scout” Edith Schippers (VVD) talked to all thirteen party leaders in order to find out which coalitions they deemed most logical after the elections. Their replies are being shared openly, and give a first indication as to what’s going to happen.
What first was a tense situation has now become a full-fledged diplomatic row between Turkey and the Netherlands — a row that serves both Erdoğan and Rutte in their respective campaigns.
Three weeks ago the Teeven affair came to a head with Security and Justice minister Van der Steur resigning. This is generally seen as a serious problem for prime minister and VVD leader Rutte, so I’m afraid I’m going to have to treat it.
The affair is nothing new; in fact, Opstelten, the previous Security and Justice minister, resigned over it in 2015. I have been postponing and postponing a post about this affair, since it’s complicated and mostly boring — the ultimate in Dutch inside political baseball.
But here we go.
The Dutch elections are on 15th of March, and in the current international political climate they could take on an importance that goes well beyond our national parliament. Pundits and commentators might (ab)use the results to make predictions on the upcoming French and German elections (which will take place in April/May and September, respectively). So let’s take a look at the current situation, starting on the right, where the action is.
Last week the Amsterdam negotiations finally succeeded. The capital will be governed by a coalition of D66, VVD, and SP. The PvdA, which was part of the coalition from 1946 on, has been banished to the opposition, as was its loyal wing lieutenant GL. Also, the VVD has agreed to work with the SP, a combination that so far was ruled not impossible, but very, very unlikely.
The local Amsterdam formation, which I last reported on a month ago, has taken some strange turns. In the last installment we saw that big winner D66 was talking with GL in order to come to an agreement, after which a third party would be invited to join the nascent coalition. This has not happened.
In 2012, when VVD and PvdA negotiated their coalition, it was decided that being an illegal immigrant would in itself become a punishable offence. So far, illegal immigrants could be sent back to their country, but the fact that they were present in the Netherlands was not a crime. The VVD aimed at changing this, and eventually the PvdA agreed in exchange for social-economic concessions.
Like in all Dutch cities and communities, Amsterdam is in the throes of local negotiations to form the new city government. In Amsterdam D66 won a surprisingly large victory, 7 to 14 seats, while traditional power party PvdA dropped from 15 to 10. Thus D66 has the initiative, and Rinnooy Kan, a D66 member who was previously chairman of the prestigious Social-Economic Council, was appointed informer.
Today he unveiled his first report: at the moment it seems we’re headed for a surprising D66+SP+VVD coalition. This is not yet final; anything can change, and it’s not a combination local politics watchers considered likely, but it’s where we are now. Source: Parool.
Preliminary election results:
Back in the good old days there were three parties: PvdA on the left, CDA in the centre, and VVD on the right.
From 1946 to 1994 the CDA (and its predecessor parties) sat in government and decided on a case-by-case basis whether to form a coalition with PvdA or VVD. Then the CDA itself started to belong to the right but that didn’t change its position in politics. It could go over left, and did so occasionally just to remind the VVD.
Although I’ve been silent for a long time I have kept track of the polls, which show a clear advantage for SP and VVD, with the rest of the parties trailing behind. Today I added a feature: a calculation of pollster errors in the 2002-2010 elections, which serves to understand why the Politieke Barometer is the most reliable poll.
Sorry for the long silence; I’ve been very busy first, very lazy afterwards. But here’s a quick round-up of what’s happened in the past few weeks.
This week was less hectic than last, but still plenty of things are happening.
There are two main items this week: the fall-out of the austerity agreement, and the CDA leadership election. But first, a sad anniversary.
29 April 2012
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Buma, CDA, Coalitions, D66, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, Samsom, VVD, Verhagen
This week was a spectacular one in Dutch politics, with expectations starting very low but climbing to dizzying heights at the end of the week, after a five-party austerity agreement was reached. Winners: D66, CU, and maybe GL and CDA. Losers: PvdA and possibly the PVV.
21 April 2012
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This is just in: Geert Wilders has left the consultations with VVD and CDA, and government is in danger. We’ll likely have new elections in September or so.
Before continuing I’d like to thank all Dutch politicians for waiting for my homecoming before doing anything really spectacular. I’ve been in the US for the past three weeks, and have had no time for updates, even though interesting things have happened in Dutch politics. But the main item, Wilders basically retreating from the coalition, happened only just now.
The new Peil.nl poll has been released and I added it to the polls page. In addition, Peil.nl released some extra polling focused on the SP.
So before it falls, let’s quickly describe the Rutte government now that it’s been in power for about a year and a half. The most important take-away for foreigners is that Geert Wilders does not sit in government. Instead he promised ... gedoogsteun.
We’ve run into a serious translation problem. I have found no directly equivalent English term for gedoogsteun. Still, some help from my Twitter followers unearthed the fact that both Canada and New Zealand have had a similar construct, but no specific name for it. Denmark, too, has made extensive use of gedoogsteun, but I don’t speak Danish and I doubt they translated their name for it into English.
Well, it seems VVD leader Rutte is no longer rejecting the Purple-Plus VVD+PvdA+D66+GL coalition. Commentators expect the next few days of Tjeenk Willink’s informership to be spent on exploring this possibility further.
Informer Rosenthal has announced that he sees no possibility of getting a right-wing government. The CDA wants VVD and PVV to reach an agreement first, while the PVV demands that all three parties participate in the negotiations.
The negotiations for a right-wing VVD+PVV+CDA government have hardly gone on for a few days, and the participants are already positioning themselves to blame someone else if they fail. Right now Wilders is in a better position in the blame game, and that could be dangerous.
Well, it seems there will be negotiations for a right-wing coalition. As regular readers know I applaud this: let Wilders show how much (or little) interested in governing he is.
6 June 2010
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CDA, Coalitions, VVD
On Sunday 6 June I’ll leave for a holiday in Venice, from which I’ll return on Sunday 13 June. I will take my laptop and a brand-new dongle, so in theory I’ll have Internet access and will follow Dutch politics a bit. Before I leave I’ll give you an update on the likely coalition negotiations and the CDA leadership struggle.
The new Peil.nl poll has landed and I added it to the polls page.
One seat from CDA to CU, one to the VVD from CDA, PvdA, and D66.
In an interview with the news site nu.nl VVD leader Rutte opened the attack on the CDA.
In the series “curiouser and curiouser” today we see the unusual sight of two PvdA economists praising the VVD economic programme.
The two, Vermeend and Van der Ploeg, state that it’s the VVD programme that will deliver the best results when it comes to economic growth, employment, and reducing the deficit. They also like the D66 programme, stating that it works well in the short run (but not, apparently, the long run). In contrast, they cannot yet judge the PvdA and CDA programmes because they contain insufficient figures, so their effect cannot yet be calculated.
(Source: Volkskrant)
6 May 2010
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CDA, CU, D66, GL, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, PvdD, SGP, SP, ToN, VVD
In the past six weeks or so I haven’t been as active on this blog as I’d planned, but in the end this is a personal side project that I either have time for or don’t. Fortunately the past weeks were also relatively quiet on the political front. The local elections have run their course, and the parties are now gearing up for the general elections.
The campaign will start in two weeks or so, because late April/early May features a few Dutch-only holidays: Queen’s Day on 30 April, Remembrance Day on 4 May, and Liberation Day on 5 May. (The latter two both celebrate our liberation from the nazis in 1945). Besides, there’s a two-week school holiday right now, and many voters are abroad on some beach or so. Little sense in starting up your campaign now.
1 May 2010
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Coalitions, Polls, PvdA, VVD
Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.
For the first time, the VVD is the second-largest party in both polls, being 3 or 1 seat larger than the CDA, respectively.
19 April 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD, Wilders
Peil.nl had published a new poll in which respondents were asked for their wishes and expectations regarding coalitions and prime ministers. There are a few nuggets in here.
Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.
13 April 2010
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D66, GL, Local elections, PvdA, VVD
When I started the Negotiations to Watch series I didn’t think the Amsterdam negotiations would bear watching. However, they have evolved into a curious situation that has the potential to hurt D66.
So an extra Amsterdam bulletin is in order. Besides, monitoring such negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.
Because I’ve been unable to work on this blog last week we’ve got a backlog of interesting stuff. So I’ll run a series of quick updates on a variety of topics.
First the local negotiations in Den Haag.
12 April 2010
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Coalitions, D66, PvdA, VVD
In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)
Today we continue with Purple.
It’s time to return to the local coalition negotiations in Rotterdam, Almere, and Den Haag. All three are unusual in that a large right-wing party (Leefbaar Rotterdam and twice Wilders’s PVV) challenges the might of the local PvdA.
Besides, monitoring these negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.
Today we close off with Den Haag.
4 April 2010
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CDA, Coalitions, D66, VVD
In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)
Today we continue with Centre-right.
In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)
Today we continue with Right.
The new Peil.nl poll has landed. Also, it seems TNS NIPO has finally started up election polling. In addition to yesterday’s release it turns out they conducted a poll about a month ago, but that one hasn’t been officially published. I added both to the polls page. I expect the new Politieke Barometer poll tonight.
The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
Here, too, there’s little change. PvdA wins two seats, one each from GL and D66, VVD also wins two seats, one each from CDA and PVV. Just like in Thursday’s Politieke Barometer the PVV starts to go down ever so slightly, the SP halts is downward trend, and the CDA vacillates but generally goes down. No change in left vs. right, but the broad centre (PvdA, D66, CDA, VVD) wins one seat from each of the flanks.
On my scoreboard the battle for second place after PvdA has started, and it’s exclusively between the three parties of the right. If the VVD captures two more seats from the CDA, it is the second-largest party of the country.
The Purple coalition rises some more (it contains both winners PvdA and VVD, after all), and is now at the same level as the coalition on the right.
An extra question was asked about the tax deductability of interest payments on mortgages.
The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
Not much to see; one seat from PVV to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from GL to SP. The CDA is clearly not yet done with its slide, although the momentum has lessened. Conversely, we might see a PVV slide momentum building up. The SP seems to have hit the low point; this is the first time it has won a seat in any poll this year. The centre-left coalition lost one seat and goes back to 75.
I expect the polls to change only gradually in the next few weeks, unless something dramatic happens. The PvdA’s reward for blowing up government has now been accounted for; it’s the other parties’ move.
I do expect a few trends to surface. Has Wilders’s inevitable slide down to about 12-15 seats started yet? Will the CDA go down even more or stabilise? Will the left block win more seats from the right, or has equilibrium been reached?
An extra poll tells us something about how Dutch voters select a party. This topic has been discussed in the comments recently, and it’s nice to be able to show some figures.
In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)
Today we’ll start with a broad overview. Separate posts will discuss each of the five most likely coalitions.
It’s time to return to the local coalition negotiations in Rotterdam, Almere, and Den Haag. All three are unusual in that a large right-wing party (Leefbaar Rotterdam and twice Wilders’s PVV) challenges the might of the local PvdA.
Besides, monitoring these negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.
Today we continue with Almere.
21 March 2010
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CDA, Coalitions, Polls, PvdA, VVD
I just discovered that Peil.nl released another poll yesterday, about government formation.
20 March 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Coalitions, Cohen, D66, GL, Leers, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD, Verhagen, Wilders
Oh my, the new Peil.nl poll has landed two days early. I’ve added it to the polls page.
The timing is surprising, the content isn’t. Basically it confirms Thursday’s poll in that the PvdA wins five seats, of which one comes from the right, two from D66, and one each from GL and SP. The centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 coalition does not yet have a majority in this poll, but does win two seats.
18 March 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, Halsema, PVV, Pechtold, Polls, PvdA, Roemer, Rouvoet, Rutte, Thieme, ToN, VVD, Van der Staaij, Verdonk, Wilders
The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
The PvdA won seven seats, and that’s really a lot for just one week. Even in my dampened-down average the PvdA is now four seats larger than the CDA. It’s clear that the appointment of Cohen has been an excellent move.
The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
The most important change is that the PvdA continues to win (+3 this week), and that the incrowd parties PvdA, CDA, VVD, and D66 combined also win (+4 together). The latter is odd for Peil.nl, which generally tends to give extreme and small parties more seats than its competitors do.
In general Peil.nl is moving to the numbers the Politieke Barometer gives. Still, it’s too early to tell whether this means a true change in the electorate or a random fluctuation.
9 March 2010
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CDA, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, VVD
Curiously, right now the major Dutch newspapers, except for De Telegraaf, are all but ignoring the single most important story in Dutch politics right now: the Almere formation. An update is in order.
7 March 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Local elections, PvdA, Roemer, SP, VVD, Wilders
More details about several unfolding political stories: the prime-minister race, Balkenende’s continuing stability problems, a PvdA+CDA coalition, new SP party leader Roemer, and the local government negotiations in Almere and Rotterdam.
5 March 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, D66, Debates, GL, Halsema, Kant, Local elections, PVV, Pechtold, PvdA, Roemer, Rutte, SP, ToN, VVD, Verdonk, Wilders
On Wednesday Dutch voted for their local councils, and the result is interesting. SP leader Kant resigns, Wilders’s PVV the largest party in one city, PvdA and CDA lose, D66 wins.
Before we continue, one housekeeping note: I will be away for the weekend, and there will be no updates to this blog. Publication will resume on Monday.
2 March 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, CU, PVV, PvdA, Rouvoet, ToN, VVD, Van Geel, Verhagen, Wilders
Some small fry that might be of interest to political observers:
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with the VVD.
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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