Posts in the SP category.
Part of Parties.
4 December 2020
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Baudet, CU, DENK, FvD, Krol, Minor parties, PvdT, Rutte, SP, VVD
Dutch politics remain in flux, especially in the margins.
There will be general elections next March, and the dozen-plus-a-few Dutch parties are preparing for them. It’s time for another series of party profiles. We’ll go in order from small to large according to the August 2020 polls.
Today we’ll continue with left-conservative SP.
Since Dutch politics are boring and predictable right now, let’s also take a look at some other occurrences.
23 January 2017
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Artikel 1, Asscher, D66, DENK, GL, Klaver, NW, Pechtold, PvdA, Roemer, SP
The Dutch elections are on 15th of March, and in the current international political climate they could take on an importance that goes well beyond our national parliament. Pundits and commentators might (ab)use the results to make predictions on the upcoming French and German elections (which will take place in April/May and September, respectively). So let’s take a look at the current situation. Last week we looked at the right; today we’ll look at the left.
Last week the Amsterdam negotiations finally succeeded. The capital will be governed by a coalition of D66, VVD, and SP. The PvdA, which was part of the coalition from 1946 on, has been banished to the opposition, as was its loyal wing lieutenant GL. Also, the VVD has agreed to work with the SP, a combination that so far was ruled not impossible, but very, very unlikely.
The local Amsterdam formation, which I last reported on a month ago, has taken some strange turns. In the last installment we saw that big winner D66 was talking with GL in order to come to an agreement, after which a third party would be invited to join the nascent coalition. This has not happened.
Like in all Dutch cities and communities, Amsterdam is in the throes of local negotiations to form the new city government. In Amsterdam D66 won a surprisingly large victory, 7 to 14 seats, while traditional power party PvdA dropped from 15 to 10. Thus D66 has the initiative, and Rinnooy Kan, a D66 member who was previously chairman of the prestigious Social-Economic Council, was appointed informer.
Today he unveiled his first report: at the moment it seems we’re headed for a surprising D66+SP+VVD coalition. This is not yet final; anything can change, and it’s not a combination local politics watchers considered likely, but it’s where we are now. Source: Parool.
Back in the good old days there were three parties: PvdA on the left, CDA in the centre, and VVD on the right.
From 1946 to 1994 the CDA (and its predecessor parties) sat in government and decided on a case-by-case basis whether to form a coalition with PvdA or VVD. Then the CDA itself started to belong to the right but that didn’t change its position in politics. It could go over left, and did so occasionally just to remind the VVD.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore, just like in 2010, I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of winning seats. We’ll go from smallest to largest.
Today we’ll continue with left-wing SP.
Although I’ve been silent for a long time I have kept track of the polls, which show a clear advantage for SP and VVD, with the rest of the parties trailing behind. Today I added a feature: a calculation of pollster errors in the 2002-2010 elections, which serves to understand why the Politieke Barometer is the most reliable poll.
Sorry for the long silence; I’ve been very busy first, very lazy afterwards. But here’s a quick round-up of what’s happened in the past few weeks.
This week was less hectic than last, but still plenty of things are happening.
There are two main items this week: the fall-out of the austerity agreement, and the CDA leadership election. But first, a sad anniversary.
29 April 2012
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Buma, CDA, Coalitions, D66, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, Samsom, VVD, Verhagen
This week was a spectacular one in Dutch politics, with expectations starting very low but climbing to dizzying heights at the end of the week, after a five-party austerity agreement was reached. Winners: D66, CU, and maybe GL and CDA. Losers: PvdA and possibly the PVV.
Ipsos, which also polls for the Politieke Barometer, has released a paper on SP and PVV voters. The main conclusion is that no less than 7% of Dutch voters are willing to vote for both SP and PVV, while about a quarter of them is willing to vote SP but not PVV, and about the same amount PVV but not SP.
The new Politieke Barometer poll was just released, and it confirms the PVV-to-SP trend. SP +7, PVV -4. See the polls page for the updated averages and coalitions.
As I reported earlier the polls indicate that the SP is winning seats from the PVV. Geert Wilders is getting nervous and has opened the attack. Unfortunately for him, the SP is not the only danger.
The new Peil.nl poll has been released and I added it to the polls page. In addition, Peil.nl released some extra polling focused on the SP.
Lots of news on the polls front. The PVV drops rather sharply, the SP rises accordingly, and TNS-NIPO starts polling — more or less.
Oh my, it seems Peil.nl is publishing a daily poll now. After yesterday’s poll, today brings a new one. I added it to the polls page but removed yesterday’s. Right now my system assumes all pollsters publish with roughly the same interval, and for now I want to retain that feature. (I’m afraid I won’t have the time to rewrite the polling page before the elections.)
Peil.nl and TNS-NIPO have both released new polls, which I’ve added to the polls page.
6 May 2010
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CDA, CU, D66, GL, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, PvdD, SGP, SP, ToN, VVD
In the past six weeks or so I haven’t been as active on this blog as I’d planned, but in the end this is a personal side project that I either have time for or don’t. Fortunately the past weeks were also relatively quiet on the political front. The local elections have run their course, and the parties are now gearing up for the general elections.
The campaign will start in two weeks or so, because late April/early May features a few Dutch-only holidays: Queen’s Day on 30 April, Remembrance Day on 4 May, and Liberation Day on 5 May. (The latter two both celebrate our liberation from the nazis in 1945). Besides, there’s a two-week school holiday right now, and many voters are abroad on some beach or so. Little sense in starting up your campaign now.
19 April 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD, Wilders
Peil.nl had published a new poll in which respondents were asked for their wishes and expectations regarding coalitions and prime ministers. There are a few nuggets in here.
Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.
2 April 2010
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Coalitions, D66, GL, PvdA, SP
In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)
Today we continue with Left.
The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
Not much to see; one seat from PVV to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from GL to SP. The CDA is clearly not yet done with its slide, although the momentum has lessened. Conversely, we might see a PVV slide momentum building up. The SP seems to have hit the low point; this is the first time it has won a seat in any poll this year. The centre-left coalition lost one seat and goes back to 75.
I expect the polls to change only gradually in the next few weeks, unless something dramatic happens. The PvdA’s reward for blowing up government has now been accounted for; it’s the other parties’ move.
I do expect a few trends to surface. Has Wilders’s inevitable slide down to about 12-15 seats started yet? Will the CDA go down even more or stabilise? Will the left block win more seats from the right, or has equilibrium been reached?
An extra poll tells us something about how Dutch voters select a party. This topic has been discussed in the comments recently, and it’s nice to be able to show some figures.
In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)
Today we’ll start with a broad overview. Separate posts will discuss each of the five most likely coalitions.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with the SP.
7 March 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Local elections, PvdA, Roemer, SP, VVD, Wilders
More details about several unfolding political stories: the prime-minister race, Balkenende’s continuing stability problems, a PvdA+CDA coalition, new SP party leader Roemer, and the local government negotiations in Almere and Rotterdam.
5 March 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, D66, Debates, GL, Halsema, Kant, Local elections, PVV, Pechtold, PvdA, Roemer, Rutte, SP, ToN, VVD, Verdonk, Wilders
On Wednesday Dutch voted for their local councils, and the result is interesting. SP leader Kant resigns, Wilders’s PVV the largest party in one city, PvdA and CDA lose, D66 wins.
Before we continue, one housekeeping note: I will be away for the weekend, and there will be no updates to this blog. Publication will resume on Monday.
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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