Well, that was interesting. The second major TV debate between eight party leaders actually allows us to draw a few conclusions. It could possibly even be a game-changer, though this year changing the game doesn’t mean winning 10 seats, but rather 3 or 4.

Remember: Wilders refused to attend, which led to Thieme (PvdD) being invited. I am starting to think Wilders has made a mistake here. See below under Buma.

Briefly, I expect 50Plus, GL, and the CDA to win some seats due to this debate, D66 and possibly the SP to remain stable, and the rest, including the PVV, to lose. Let’s see how badly this prediction does when the first post-debate polls come out. (I hope De Hond releases his tonight; for the others we’ll likely have to wait until Wednesday.)

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Frankly, not a lot has happened this week, which is the penultimate one before the 15 March elections. Still, here are some recent developments; none of them game-changing, but they may be of interest to political observers.

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Yesterday featured the first major TV debate between five party leaders. Rutte and Wilders had withdrawn, so only Buma (CDA), Pechtold (D66), Klaver (GL), Asscher (PvdA), and Roemer (SP) participated.

The two main questions were whether one of the left-wing leaders would take a decisive lead over the others, and thus become Rutte’s main opponent in the elections; and whether Rutte and Wilders were right or wrong in abstaining from the debate.

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In preparation for tonight’s first big TV debate, here are a few things that happened over the week. Also, a quick look forward to tonight's debate, and a remark on new elections in 2018.

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Although a host of election debates will be held in the next seven weeks, there are only two that will be broadcast on national television, and traditionally these two debates have the largest impact on voters.

Also, we have been treated to a debate about the first debate for the past few weeks that was resolved today with a possible defeat for Wilders and Rutte.

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Traditionally an election night closes off with a final debate between the party leaders. However, I just read that Rutte (VVD) feels a debate is pointless since no winner is known. Cohen (PvdA), Halsema (GL) and Pechtold (D66) seem to agree and will stay away, too.

Balkenende, having resigned, will not appear either, although the number 2 of the CDA list, Bijleveld, will appear. However, it seems she'll debate only Roemer (SP), Wilders (PVV), and Rouvoet (CU).

On the plus side, I don't have to worry about missing this debate. On the minus side, exactly the coalition that I consider likeliest is missing. Will there be traffic between the four missing party leaders tonight?

Yesterday the leaders of the eight largest parties debated on the economy. It was a tightly-led debate with a distinctly less weird format than usual, and it allowed all eight participants to shine a few times — or fail to do so, but that was their own fault.

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Sunday I watched the first debate in this election cycle, and here’s my report. It was slated as a “prime minister debate,” and as a result only four party leaders participated: Cohen (PvdA), Balkenende (CDA), Rutte (VVD), and Wilders (PVV).

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On Wednesday Dutch voted for their local councils, and the result is interesting. SP leader Kant resigns, Wilders’s PVV the largest party in one city, PvdA and CDA lose, D66 wins.

Before we continue, one housekeeping note: I will be away for the weekend, and there will be no updates to this blog. Publication will resume on Monday.

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Yesterday the leaders of CDA, PvdA, VVD, PVV, SP, and D66 debated each other on TV, and continued on the Internet. I watched both so you don’t have to.

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