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Final polls 2021 elections

Here are the final polls for the 2021 elections taking place today (and for the past two days for Covid risk groups).

There are two last-minute trends that are worth highlighting:

1. There was a shift of about 3-5 seats from VVD to D66. So far the VVD profited from the Covid rally-round-the-flag effect, but in the last two weeks it went down a tad, and with the final polls of earlier this week it went down a bit more. A month ago the VVD was at 39 in my average; now it's at 34. Since the VVD is in the Right block and D66 in the Left block, this is also a shift from right to left.
2. Several small parties unexpectedly made the final polls. It was already clear that pro-EU Volt (a pan-European party) and national-conservative JA21 (a FvD split-off) were going to win more than one seat each, but in the very final polls two more parties might have made it: black party BIJ1 and the hitherto-unknown-to-me BBB, a farmers’ party that likely belongs on the right. Both parties have one seat in three polls. Normally I would rule that that means they don’t enter parliament for reasons described here. Nonetheless, their upsurge came so late that it’s possible the fourth pollster might have picked up on it as well if it had conducted one more poll. Therefore I gave both small parties one seat in my final average. This may come back to bite me; we’ll see.

It is clear that Rutte’s VVD will remain the largest party. There’s a struggle going on for second place, though. So far everyone assumed Wilders’s PVV was going to take second again, but with the recent upsurge of D66 that is uncertain.

Also, the VVD may remain the largest party, but which parties will want to enter yet another VVD-led coalition? CDA, yes, that’s a given. But other than that? Will D66 sign up for a second term? Given that it may have broken its streak of losing heavily after coalition participation, maybe. But they’ll need a fourth party. Again CU? D66 and CU remain polar opposites when it comes to progressive and conservative values. GL? PvdA? Who knows.

One thing is certain: it won’t be Wilders or Baudet. Both VVD and CDA have formally excluded them, so when it comes to power a PVV (or FvD) vote remains a wasted one. That won’t stop people from voting for them, though.

Incidentally, the populist parties large and small are at 28 seats in my average, which is exactly the Fortuyn limit in place since the 2002 elections. In those elections the populists won 28 seats as well, and they never exceeded that number. From the polls it appears that 2021 will not be the year they break through the Fortuyn limit, either.

<— Asscher resigns as PvdA leader | 2021 election results —>

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