This is the monthly archive for June 2010.
My apologies for not posting more; I’m busy busy. The politicians are busy busy, too, rejecting coalitions faster than the eye can follow.
Informer Rosenthal has announced that he sees no possibility of getting a right-wing government. The CDA wants VVD and PVV to reach an agreement first, while the PVV demands that all three parties participate in the negotiations.
I’ve entered the 2010 provincial scores, and am studying the results ever since.
The most obviously interesting point is that the PVV became by far the largest party in Limburg. Also, the VVD has become the largest party in Gelderland and Noord-Brabant for the first time, while the CDA became largest only in Overijssel.
The negotiations for a right-wing VVD+PVV+CDA government have hardly gone on for a few days, and the participants are already positioning themselves to blame someone else if they fail. Right now Wilders is in a better position in the blame game, and that could be dangerous.
Well, it seems there will be negotiations for a right-wing coalition. As regular readers know I applaud this: let Wilders show how much (or little) interested in governing he is.
Some minor points:
Political custom dictates that just after the elections all party leaders deplore the fact that the forming of a stable coalition is so very very difficult. Usually that means that they can’t (easily) form the coalition of their choice, but in general they are able to find a reasonable option within two to three weeks (although the formal negotiations take longer).
98% of the votes have been counted, and there are some slight shifts relative to yesterday night. Wilders’s PVV wins two extra seats for a total of 24. PvdA, GL, and SP each lose one seat relative to yesterday, while the PvdD remains stable at 2 seats instead of losing one.
Traditionally an election night closes off with a final debate between the party leaders. However, I just read that Rutte (VVD) feels a debate is pointless since no winner is known. Cohen (PvdA), Halsema (GL) and Pechtold (D66) seem to agree and will stay away, too.
Balkenende, having resigned, will not appear either, although the number 2 of the CDA list, Bijleveld, will appear. However, it seems she'll debate only Roemer (SP), Wilders (PVV), and Rouvoet (CU).
On the plus side, I don't have to worry about missing this debate. On the minus side, exactly the coalition that I consider likeliest is missing. Will there be traffic between the four missing party leaders tonight?
Balkenende has resigned. No surprise, but it still had to happen. A new party leader has not been announced, and this will become a painful process.
Turnout is relatively low: only 74%. What seems to have happened is that about one third of the CDA voters stayed home. That’s good news for now, but it also means the christian-democrats may recover quite a bit once they have a better leader.
I’ve added the exit polls to the polls page so that we can go through possible and impossible coalitions.
It’s going to be a nail-biter tonight, with PvdA and VVD both at 31 seats. It’s likely the results are going to differ slightly from the exit polls, but whether that’s good for the PvdA or the VVD remains to be seen.
Poll update: one seat has shifted from PVV (now 22) to SP (now 16). Right block goes down to 74.
The Politieke Barometer has released its final poll which I’ve added to the polls page. With that polling is complete, and the polls page contains a final score.
Peil.nl has released its final poll which I’ve added to the polls page.
TNS-NIPO has released its final poll which I’ve added to the polls page.
Peil.nl has released new polls which I’ve added to the polls page.
This poll does not see the shift to the left that the Politieke Barometer reported. I have no direct explanation, except for the general difference in methodology between the two polls. We’ll see who’s right.
(Incidentally, you might notice that my Internet connection from Venice works fine. I expect to report the election results on Wednesday night, plus a little forecast.)
6 June 2010
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CDA, Coalitions, VVD
On Sunday 6 June I’ll leave for a holiday in Venice, from which I’ll return on Sunday 13 June. I will take my laptop and a brand-new dongle, so in theory I’ll have Internet access and will follow Dutch politics a bit. Before I leave I’ll give you an update on the likely coalition negotiations and the CDA leadership struggle.
The latest Politieke Barometer poll is out, and it reports nothing less than a six-seat shift to the left. This changes the polls page considerably.
Oh my, it seems Peil.nl is publishing a daily poll now. After yesterday’s poll, today brings a new one. I added it to the polls page but removed yesterday’s. Right now my system assumes all pollsters publish with roughly the same interval, and for now I want to retain that feature. (I’m afraid I won’t have the time to rewrite the polling page before the elections.)
Just because I’m curious: dear loyal foreign readers, what would you vote? Please leave a comment with your preference.
I hope this blog has given you some insight into the Dutch political system, and that you can now make a more-or-less informed choice between the eleven Dutch parties. Which choice? In order to help you I give links to the eleven party profiles below.
Of course this poll is in no way scientific, and I doubt more than five or six people will react, judging by the amount of commenters. But still I’d like to know.
Peil.nl and TNS-NIPO have both released new polls, which I’ve added to the polls page.
Some minor points:
See the May 2010 archive.
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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