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First thoughts

It’s going to be a nail-biter tonight, with PvdA and VVD both at 31 seats. It’s likely the results are going to differ slightly from the exit polls, but whether that’s good for the PvdA or the VVD remains to be seen.

Poll update: one seat has shifted from PVV (now 22) to SP (now 16). Right block goes down to 74.

The CDA has equalled its worst result ever, the 1994 elections, when it also lost 20 seats (54 to 34). Congratulations!

Balkenende is toast. The CDA falling to not the second, nor even the third, but the fourth party of the country is unsurvivable for any political leader, and certainly for Balkenende, who’s reached his Best-Before date months ago. The only question is when he’ll resign. I assume around eleven or so. Even if the PVV turns out to be smaller than the CDA Balkenende will still resign.

There was obviously a last-minute move from VVD to PVV worth about five seats, which was partially compensated by a last-minute move from CDA to VVD worth about two seats. The first move can be explained by the VVD doing so well in the polls: strategic voters who wanted to vote Wilders but had decided to help make the VVD the largest went back to their true choice, and the VVD suffered.

Still, the outcome is not so bad for the CDA coalition-wise. Whoever wins, VVD or PvdA, will first and foremost start to woo the CDA, without which no coalition is possible. Unless they go for Purple-green, but that won’t be the first choice of either Rutte or Cohen. Both have invested too much in their struggle

Compared to the polls the SP is doing well, even though it loses 10 seats. These seats end up with GL and D66 (though in all likelihood the move from SP to D66 is not direct, but through the PvdA).

The CU loses a seat. This is unexpected, although it did not so well in the last polls. Rouvoet didn’t really hit his stride in this campaign; he came across as a technocrat, and not as a christian leader.

D66: moderate outcome. It must sting that GL is slightly larger, although that might change later in the evening.

Oh, and for the record, I let my proxy vote D66 for me. I hesitated between the Democrats and the SP for a long time, but in the end decided that D66 is more reform-minded than the SP, even though I like parts of the socialist platform.

I’ll probably have some further thoughts as the evening progresses.

<— Exit poll | Coalitions: Purple —>

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