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The VVD has become the second-largest party in the Politieke Barometer, too, celebrating that fact by taking another seat from the CDA. It’s clear now that the campaign will at least start as a PvdA vs. VVD fight. Nobody yet knows whether the CDA will knuckle under or stage yet another improbable comeback, but Balkenende’s party starts on the defensive.
However, as you can see in my forecast in the sidebar, I still think that the CDA will finish before the VVD. I’ll only believe in a VVD as second (or maybe largest?) party when the polls still point that way a week before the elections.
Other than that the Peil.nl poll was easily the most boring one possible: one seat moves from D66 to VVD. The Politieke Barometer one is a bit more lively with four seats changing hands, one from CDA to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from D66 to PvdA, and one from PvdD to SP.
The Purple PvdA+VVD+D66 coalition now also has a majority in both polls, just as the right VVD+CDA+PVV coalition. At least there’s some choice here.
This sort of polls that only marginally change the big picture will continue at least until the start of the proper campaign, which I expect in about two weeks.
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Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.
The VVD has become the second-largest party in the Politieke Barometer, too, celebrating that fact by taking another seat from the CDA. It’s clear now that the campaign will at least start as a PvdA vs. VVD fight. Nobody yet knows whether the CDA will knuckle under or stage yet another improbable comeback, but Balkenende’s party starts on the defensive.
However, as you can see in my forecast in the sidebar, I still think that the CDA will finish before the VVD. I’ll only believe in a VVD as second (or maybe largest?) party when the polls still point that way a week before the elections.
Other than that the Peil.nl poll was easily the most boring one possible: one seat moves from D66 to VVD. The Politieke Barometer one is a bit more lively with four seats changing hands, one from CDA to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from D66 to PvdA, and one from PvdD to SP.
The Purple PvdA+VVD+D66 coalition now also has a majority in both polls, just as the right VVD+CDA+PVV coalition. At least there’s some choice here.
This sort of polls that only marginally change the big picture will continue at least until the start of the proper campaign, which I expect in about two weeks.
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This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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1 Posted by BARTdG on 10 May 2010 | Permalink
I think CDA are in trouble. VDD have ‘momentum’ (ah, Americanism) and Balkenende (CDA) seems vulnerable. Once centre-of-right voters understand that it’s not CDA, but VVD who are the competitor of PvdA, many of them are going to switch. (Like in the 2003 elections, when many people switched from VVD to CDA because they wanted to vote against PvdA’s Wouter Bos.)
This is probably what you mean by
“I’ll only believe in a VVD as second (or maybe largest?) party when the polls still point that way a week before the elections.”
– but I think it’s happening already.
VVD might attract even more PVV voters, although many of those may just not show up, once the realise their party isn’t going to get anywhere near 25 seats. If they don’t, VVD could come in first.
But hey, still four weeks to go. Everything might just change completely.
One question though. Do you think VVD + CDA + PVV is a viable option?