Politieke Barometer
poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
Not much to see; one seat from PVV to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from GL to SP.
The CDA is clearly not yet done with its slide, although the momentum has lessened.
Conversely, we might see a PVV slide momentum building up. The SP seems to have hit
the low point; this is the first time it has won a seat in any poll this year. The
centre-left coalition lost one seat and goes back to 75.
I expect the polls to change only gradually in the next few weeks, unless something
dramatic happens. The PvdA’s reward for blowing up government has now been
accounted for; it’s the other parties’ move.
I do expect a few trends to surface. Has Wilders’s inevitable slide down to
about 12-15 seats started yet? Will the CDA go down even more or stabilise? Will the
left block win more seats from the right, or has equilibrium been reached?
An extra poll tells us something about how Dutch voters select a party.
This topic has been discussed in the comments recently, and it’s nice to be able
to show some figures.
Why do people vote what they vote? Only one reason allowed.
Habit/feel at home: 23%
Dominates for christian voters. 80% of SGP and 50% of CDA voters named this
reason. Basically it means “believes what I believe.”
Thus the christian majority of 1918-1967, as well as most
of what happened later. The article series explains the
details; this is the root cause.
Want party in coalition: 19%
These 19% mostly vote for the third to eleventh parties; the
top horse race is covered by separate reasons.
Basically this is the answer
for those who wondered why you’d vote for a third party.
I realise it’s not really an answer, but it’s the best I have
to give. It’s natural to me, and it’s the most important issue
for one in five Dutch.
(And why do they want their party in the coalition? That’s probably a mix
of “feel at home” and platform.)
Platform: 15%
40% of PVV voters; because of immigration and criminality. Pension age is named
by none of the participants, and that’s odd because Wilders made a lot
of noise about it. It proves that in the end the PVV is a right-wing party and cannot break
through to left-wing voters. The SP will profit in the polls.
Among VVD voters the preservation of tax-deductible mortgages was mentioned often;
health care among SP voters.
Party leader: 10%
Pechtold is the best example: he personally attracts 25% of all D66 voters. Cohen
(PvdA) and Halsema (GL) also display this effect. Wilders does not; only 1% of his
voters mentions him personally.
Thus, personalities play a role in Dutch politics, but they don’t dominate
the political process.
Party will bring true change: 8%
Strong among PVV voters (23% of them), as well as GL (19%).
It should be noted that this is not a typical reason to vote for a witness
party. Witness voters know full well that their platform will never be executed; they
just want to make a principled stand.
Thus we see the effect most strongly among parties outside the broad centre that
have no witness qualities to speak of (PVV) or are slowly getting over them (GL).
Prevent other party from becoming largest: 7%
Want party to become largest: 5%
The horse race for the top slot counts as most vital reason for
12% of the voters.
These 12% (18 seats) will vote only for the two largest parties. Splitting them equally,
we get a 9-seat gain from the prime-minister effect for both PvdA and CDA, and they
will win them among voters in the same block.
That’s why Wilders wants to break in on this mechanism.
Other: 6%
No details given.
Don’t know: 6%
These voters likely belong in the “feel at home” category.
So this would be the result of a hypothetical election:
Party of Habit: 44 seats
Strategic Alliance: 29 seats
Platform Party: 23 seats
Horseracers United: 18 seats
Strong Men Movement: 15 seats
Alliance for Change: 12 seats
Other: 9 seats
Coalition-wise, I’d say the Party of Habit would combine with
either the Strategic Alliance or the Platform Party.
Right now they’d need one more party, but I expect a run to the big parties
in the last weeks before the elections.
To dethrone the Habituarians we’d need a giant coalition of strategists,
platformers, horseracers, and strong men. Not impossible, but hard to create and
even harder to maintain.
Dutch politics sometimes explain themselves if you listen carefully.
Not much to see; one seat from PVV to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from GL to SP.
The CDA is clearly not yet done with its slide, although the momentum has lessened.
Conversely, we might see a PVV slide momentum building up. The SP seems to have hit
the low point; this is the first time it has won a seat in any poll this year. The
centre-left coalition lost one seat and goes back to 75.
I expect the polls to change only gradually in the next few weeks, unless something
dramatic happens. The PvdA’s reward for blowing up government has now been
accounted for; it’s the other parties’ move.
I do expect a few trends to surface. Has Wilders’s inevitable slide down to
about 12-15 seats started yet? Will the CDA go down even more or stabilise? Will the
left block win more seats from the right, or has equilibrium been reached?
An extra poll tells us something about how Dutch voters select a party.
This topic has been discussed in the comments recently, and it’s nice to be able
to show some figures.
Why do people vote what they vote? Only one reason allowed.
Habit/feel at home: 23%
Dominates for christian voters. 80% of SGP and 50% of CDA voters named this
reason. Basically it means “believes what I believe.”
Thus the christian majority of 1918-1967, as well as most
of what happened later. The article series explains the
details; this is the root cause.
Want party in coalition: 19%
These 19% mostly vote for the third to eleventh parties; the
top horse race is covered by separate reasons.
Basically this is the answer
for those who wondered why you’d vote for a third party.
I realise it’s not really an answer, but it’s the best I have
to give. It’s natural to me, and it’s the most important issue
for one in five Dutch.
(And why do they want their party in the coalition? That’s probably a mix
of “feel at home” and platform.)
Platform: 15%
40% of PVV voters; because of immigration and criminality. Pension age is named
by none of the participants, and that’s odd because Wilders made a lot
of noise about it. It proves that in the end the PVV is a right-wing party and cannot break
through to left-wing voters. The SP will profit in the polls.
Among VVD voters the preservation of tax-deductible mortgages was mentioned often;
health care among SP voters.
Party leader: 10%
Pechtold is the best example: he personally attracts 25% of all D66 voters. Cohen
(PvdA) and Halsema (GL) also display this effect. Wilders does not; only 1% of his
voters mentions him personally.
Thus, personalities play a role in Dutch politics, but they don’t dominate
the political process.
Party will bring true change: 8%
Strong among PVV voters (23% of them), as well as GL (19%).
It should be noted that this is not a typical reason to vote for a witness
party. Witness voters know full well that their platform will never be executed; they
just want to make a principled stand.
Thus we see the effect most strongly among parties outside the broad centre that
have no witness qualities to speak of (PVV) or are slowly getting over them (GL).
Prevent other party from becoming largest: 7%
Want party to become largest: 5%
The horse race for the top slot counts as most vital reason for
12% of the voters.
These 12% (18 seats) will vote only for the two largest parties. Splitting them equally,
we get a 9-seat gain from the prime-minister effect for both PvdA and CDA, and they
will win them among voters in the same block.
That’s why Wilders wants to break in on this mechanism.
Other: 6%
No details given.
Don’t know: 6%
These voters likely belong in the “feel at home” category.
So this would be the result of a hypothetical election:
Party of Habit: 44 seats
Strategic Alliance: 29 seats
Platform Party: 23 seats
Horseracers United: 18 seats
Strong Men Movement: 15 seats
Alliance for Change: 12 seats
Other: 9 seats
Coalition-wise, I’d say the Party of Habit would combine with
either the Strategic Alliance or the Platform Party.
Right now they’d need one more party, but I expect a run to the big parties
in the last weeks before the elections.
To dethrone the Habituarians we’d need a giant coalition of strategists,
platformers, horseracers, and strong men. Not impossible, but hard to create and
even harder to maintain.
Dutch politics sometimes explain themselves if you listen carefully.
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer,
in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve
foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
