This is the monthly archive for March 2010.
30 March 2010
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CDA, CU, D66, Immigrants, Minor parties, PVV, PvdD, SGP, Van der Staaij, Wilders
Some small fry from the past ten days that might be of interest to political observers:
Things are not good for prime minister and CDA party leader Balkenende. Although he still has the official support of the party, rumblings are starting among the rank and file. Besides, a serious successor has made his way to the top.
A while ago I reported that a CDA backbencher expressed her doubts about Balkenende, doubts that were mirrored by the provincial party barons. It’s time for an update.
The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
Here, too, there’s little change. PvdA wins two seats, one each from GL and D66, VVD also wins two seats, one each from CDA and PVV. Just like in Thursday’s Politieke Barometer the PVV starts to go down ever so slightly, the SP halts is downward trend, and the CDA vacillates but generally goes down. No change in left vs. right, but the broad centre (PvdA, D66, CDA, VVD) wins one seat from each of the flanks.
On my scoreboard the battle for second place after PvdA has started, and it’s exclusively between the three parties of the right. If the VVD captures two more seats from the CDA, it is the second-largest party of the country.
The Purple coalition rises some more (it contains both winners PvdA and VVD, after all), and is now at the same level as the coalition on the right.
An extra question was asked about the tax deductability of interest payments on mortgages.
The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
Not much to see; one seat from PVV to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from GL to SP. The CDA is clearly not yet done with its slide, although the momentum has lessened. Conversely, we might see a PVV slide momentum building up. The SP seems to have hit the low point; this is the first time it has won a seat in any poll this year. The centre-left coalition lost one seat and goes back to 75.
I expect the polls to change only gradually in the next few weeks, unless something dramatic happens. The PvdA’s reward for blowing up government has now been accounted for; it’s the other parties’ move.
I do expect a few trends to surface. Has Wilders’s inevitable slide down to about 12-15 seats started yet? Will the CDA go down even more or stabilise? Will the left block win more seats from the right, or has equilibrium been reached?
An extra poll tells us something about how Dutch voters select a party. This topic has been discussed in the comments recently, and it’s nice to be able to show some figures.
I have published the fourth article in my series: Coalition of the unwilling. It treats the catholic and socialist denominations, political history 1918-1940, and World War II.
This is just in: Wilders will not be traveling to the US to attend the premiere of a film made about him, because the chairman of the funding foundation has made severe anti-gay remarks in the past.
In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)
Today we’ll start with a broad overview. Separate posts will discuss each of the five most likely coalitions.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll close off with ToN.
It’s time to return to the local coalition negotiations in Rotterdam, Almere, and Den Haag. All three are unusual in that a large right-wing party (Leefbaar Rotterdam and twice Wilders’s PVV) challenges the might of the local PvdA.
Besides, monitoring these negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.
Today we continue with Almere.
21 March 2010
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CDA, Coalitions, Polls, PvdA, VVD
I just discovered that Peil.nl released another poll yesterday, about government formation.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with the SGP.
Just after the announcement of Cohen’s succession to the PvdA party leadership, the phrase “Yes we Cohen” (coined in obvious imitation of another catch phrase used by senior politicians in largish Western countries) made the rounds of the newspapers and blogs. I dismissed it as an invention of some PvdA campagin committee and didn’t blog about it.
Yesterday, however, I heard the real story behind “Yes we Cohen.”
20 March 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Coalitions, Cohen, D66, GL, Leers, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD, Verhagen, Wilders
Oh my, the new Peil.nl poll has landed two days early. I’ve added it to the polls page.
The timing is surprising, the content isn’t. Basically it confirms Thursday’s poll in that the PvdA wins five seats, of which one comes from the right, two from D66, and one each from GL and SP. The centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 coalition does not yet have a majority in this poll, but does win two seats.
It seems that US general Sheehan is a declared opponent of revoking the US Army’s “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy, under which gays may serve in the army, but not acknowledge they’re gay. That’s ... not fine, but it is as it is.
Yesterday, however, Sheehan went completely around the bend by linking the Bosnian muslim
massacre in Srebrenica in 1995 to the fact that the Dutch army, which was supposed to protect
them, had openly-serving gay members.
(Source: Political Animal)
In other words, if the lousy, liberal Dutch hadn’t allowed filthy homosexuals to serve in their armed forces, the people from Srebrenica would have been spared. This is not only breathtakingly false, it’s also ridiculous.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with the PvdD.
18 March 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, Halsema, PVV, Pechtold, Polls, PvdA, Roemer, Rouvoet, Rutte, Thieme, ToN, VVD, Van der Staaij, Verdonk, Wilders
The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
The PvdA won seven seats, and that’s really a lot for just one week. Even in my dampened-down average the PvdA is now four seats larger than the CDA. It’s clear that the appointment of Cohen has been an excellent move.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with the CU.
It’s time to return to the local coalition negotiations in Rotterdam, Almere, and Den Haag. All three are unusual in that a large right-wing party (Leefbaar Rotterdam and twice Wilders’s PVV) challenges the might of the local PvdA.
Besides, monitoring these negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.
Today we start with Rotterdam.
I have published the third article in my series: The Antithesis. It treats the protestant and liberal denominations, the district system that was in place until 1918, as well as political history 1894-1918.
You may have noticed this article appears a week later than promised; that’s because last week I just did not have the time to make it ready for publication. I’m afraid this sort of thing will happen more often, and I do not make promises about the publication schedule any more. If a certain Wednesday goes by without a new article you’re just out of luck.
I have minor edits to make in part IV, major edits in part V, and this week I finally realised what the twelfth article in the series should be. So far this new article consists only of pieces I’ve cut out of the others, and it should be published as part VI or VII or something, so it might hold up publication of the rest.
In other words, part IV, Coalition of the unwilling, may appear next week. It may also appear the week after. I still have five articles more-or-less ready for publication, a sixth half-ready, and three further ones completely unready.
Youth broadcasting corporation BNN wants to convert its political programme Lijst 0 (List 0) into a full-fledged political party; apparently as a kind of reality show.
16 March 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Eurlings, Leers, Rouvoet, Van Geel, Verhagen
The past few weeks have not been easy for prime minister and CDA party leader Balkenende. The next weeks promise to be worse.
Balkenende had his fourth government blown up beneath him by the PvdA, and the CDA was generally seen as the culpable party. Although he was reconfirmed as party leader with remarkable speed, he was also critcised for that from day one. Besides, one CDA prominent after another is leaving politics.
Balkenende’s position is getting worse and worse.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with Geert Wilders’s PVV. It is by far the longest party profile I’ve written or will write.
The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
The most important change is that the PvdA continues to win (+3 this week), and that the incrowd parties PvdA, CDA, VVD, and D66 combined also win (+4 together). The latter is odd for Peil.nl, which generally tends to give extreme and small parties more seats than its competitors do.
In general Peil.nl is moving to the numbers the Politieke Barometer gives. Still, it’s too early to tell whether this means a true change in the electorate or a random fluctuation.
I’ve been neglecting the recent polls a bit. Each week, Peil.nl (Maurice de Hond) and the Politieke Barometer publish their ongoing general election polls (on Sunday and Thursday, respectively), and this are obviously prime data sources for any Dutch political blog.
Reason I’ve been neglecting them is that I was working on a polls and coalition overview, which is now finally finished. In the future I can give a brief overview of every new poll and refer you to this page for the details, as well as the poll trends.
The page also contains a coalition creation game, where you can try your hand at forming a stable majority coalition, and find out why it takes so bloody long.
In the series “I did not see this coming,“ two major leadership developments yesterday and today, one each for CDA and PvdA. Besides, one death in the family.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with GL.
I'm currently traveling and have little time to update this site. Therefore publication of my third article has been postponed by one day. (I need to give it one more edit.)
Also, next in my Party Profile series ought to be the PVV, but I'm not yet ready to discuss it. Therefore the Party Profile series will continue with GL.
9 March 2010
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CDA, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, VVD
Curiously, right now the major Dutch newspapers, except for De Telegraaf, are all but ignoring the single most important story in Dutch politics right now: the Almere formation. An update is in order.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with the SP.
7 March 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Local elections, PvdA, Roemer, SP, VVD, Wilders
More details about several unfolding political stories: the prime-minister race, Balkenende’s continuing stability problems, a PvdA+CDA coalition, new SP party leader Roemer, and the local government negotiations in Almere and Rotterdam.
This is just in: Wilders is in the UK to once again try to show his “film” about the deplorable results of Islam in the House of Lords.
He was greeted by a demonstration of opponents, as well as by the cheers of about a hundred members of the “English Defence League,” a group I’ve never heard of. His formal host is Lord Pearson.
I just wish foreigners would not meddle in our politics. It’s complicated enough without giving Wilders a Europe-wide forum for his message.
Any UK readers who can shed light on the EDL or Lord Pearson?
5 March 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, D66, Debates, GL, Halsema, Kant, Local elections, PVV, Pechtold, PvdA, Roemer, Rutte, SP, ToN, VVD, Verdonk, Wilders
On Wednesday Dutch voted for their local councils, and the result is interesting. SP leader Kant resigns, Wilders’s PVV the largest party in one city, PvdA and CDA lose, D66 wins.
Before we continue, one housekeeping note: I will be away for the weekend, and there will be no updates to this blog. Publication will resume on Monday.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with D66.
I have published the second article in my series: Kuyper’s world. It takes a look at protestants and catholics, liberals vs. conservatives, the rise of Abraham Kuyper, denominational segregation, and the Takkian controversy, as well as treating political history 1848-1894.
I still have six such articles more-or-less ready for publication. Part III, The Antithesis, will be published in a week.
2 March 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, CU, PVV, PvdA, Rouvoet, ToN, VVD, Van Geel, Verhagen, Wilders
Some small fry that might be of interest to political observers:
2 March 2010
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Bos, Debates, Immigrants, Kant, Pechtold, Rutte, Van Geel, Wilders
Yesterday the leaders of CDA, PvdA, VVD, PVV, SP, and D66 debated each other on TV, and continued on the Internet. I watched both so you don’t have to.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with the VVD.
See the February 2010 archive.
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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